Poole Group Wealth – May 2026 Newsletter

Market movements and review video – May 2026

Stay up to date with what’s happened in the Australian economy and markets over the past month.

April brought a sharper edge to the economic outlook.

The Middle East crisis, inflation, volatile markets and fragile consumer confidence are continuing to weigh heavily on investors. Stocks rallied as hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire grew, only to decline as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. The ASX experienced a volatile month, after a strong mid-month rally became a prolonged losing streak.

Annual inflation surged to 4.6%, up from 3.7%, driven by a 32.8% monthly spike in fuel prices due to Middle East conflict. However, trimmed mean inflation, which is the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, remained steady at 3.3%.

Click the video below to view our update.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

RBA Announcement – May 2026

At its latest meeting, the Reserve Bank Board announced it was increasing the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of this year confirms that some of this increase reflected greater capacity pressures.

In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel and related commodity prices, which are already adding to inflation.

Please click here to view the Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision.

We’re watching closely what the banks do with their rates, as some of Australia’s biggest lenders may make changes to their rates.

Please get in touch if you would like to discuss recent rate movements or if you would like to review your finance options.

Common scams to watch out for at EOFY

As the end of the financial year approaches, it’s a busy time for preparing your taxes, reviewing super, and getting your finances in order. Unfortunately, it’s also a peak period for scammers looking to take advantage of people and businesses who are focused on deadlines and end-of-year financial tasks.

EOFY creates the perfect environment for fraud. With refunds, payment reminders, super contributions, and updated financial documents all top of mind, scammers rely on urgency and distraction to trick people into handing over personal or financial information.

Knowing what to watch for can save you stress, money, and headaches. This guide highlights the most common EOFY scams and offers practical tips to help protect your finances before you act.

Fake ATO communications

A common scam involves messages pretending to be from the Australian Taxation Office. These can arrive as emails, text messages, or phone calls, claiming that a refund is due or that a tax debt must be paid immediately.

Scammers create urgency by threatening penalties, legal action, or freezing accounts. They often ask for payment via unusual methods like gift cards, cryptocurrency, or direct bank transfer. The ATO will never request payment in these ways.

Always verify suspicious communications independently. Do not click links or provide personal information in response to unexpected messages. If in doubt, search online to find the correct contact details.

Phishing emails targeting business owners

EOFY is a particularly high-risk time for businesses. Scammers often send emails that look like they come from payroll providers, accounting software platforms, banks, or even bookkeepers.

These emails may request login credentials, bank information updates, or contain attachments that install malware. Verify any unusual requests by calling the organisation using a trusted phone number. Never rely on the contact details or links provided in the email itself.

Even seemingly minor requests can be part of a larger scheme. A small error in payment details can lead to ongoing losses if scammers are able to redirect multiple invoices over time.

Invoice and payment redirection scams

Businesses finalising accounts are often targeted with fake invoices or intercepted invoices that have altered bank account details.

Because these payments are routine and expected, they can be processed without question. Always double-check any changes to payment details with the supplier before sending funds. A quick verification call can prevent significant financial loss.

It’s also wise to keep a consistent process for approving payments, including multiple checks or sign-offs for large amounts, to reduce the risk of falling victim to invoice scams.

Superannuation and investment scams

Scammers take advantage of EOFY financial reviews by promoting fake investment opportunities or superannuation schemes that promise high returns or tax advantages. Some even claim to help access super early to “avoid tax” or “invest better.”

Be cautious of unsolicited offers and guaranteed returns. Only consider changes to super or investments through verified and legitimate channels. Check any adviser or company through the official regulatory registers before taking any action.

Social media and SMS scams

Short text messages or social media ads claiming you are eligible for a tax refund are increasingly common. These often contain links to fake websites that collect personal information. Scammers may use official-looking logos, branding, and URLs to make the message appear legitimate.

Do not click on links from unexpected messages. Verify the legitimacy of any refund or offer through official websites and use secure channels for submitting sensitive information.

Staying safe

At EOFY, it’s important to slow down. Scammers rely on urgency. Messages that pressure you to take immediate action or threaten consequences are red flags. Verify first, act second.

Keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords, and enable two-factor authentication where possible. Keep an eye on your accounts for unusual activity and regularly review payment processes to make sure safeguards are in place.

EOFY should be a time to tidy up finances and plan for the year ahead. Protecting yourself from scams ensures that money stays where it belongs and that EOFY is a time for financial clarity, not stress.

For any questions or concerns about suspicious communications, talk to us. A quick check now can prevent problems later and give peace of mind while managing your EOFY finances.

Is Australia at risk of a recession? Here’s what the data actually shows

Talk of a recession in Australia has picked up in recent weeks. Rising fuel prices, a sharp fall in consumer confidence, and signs of softer spending have all added to concerns the economy may be losing momentum.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. By that standard, Australia is not there yet — but the key question is what the data are telling us about the likelihood of getting there.

The answer depends on which data you look at.

The backward-looking data: still resilient

Let’s start with the national accounts, the broadest measure of how the economy is travelling. The December quarter was solid, with annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth running at 2.6%.

That was the fastest growth in almost three years and is not an economy in recession. It suggests activity remained reasonably resilient heading into 2026, supported by ongoing demand and broadly strong economic conditions.

But the national accounts report is backward-looking. It tells us where the economy has been, not necessarily where it is going.

More recent data: momentum is slowing

More timely indicators show hints of a slowdown. Since the war in Iran began five weeks ago and pushed local petrol and diesel prices higher, consumer confidence has fallen sharply.

Measures from the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey show confidence fell to a record low in late March before edging up slightly in the latest reading. Despite this modest rebound, sentiment remains very subdued, suggesting households are increasingly cautious about the outlook.

Spending figures dating from before the Iran war began point to a weakening in demand.

Official monthly data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics point in the same direction. The Household Spending Indicator shows spending fell 0.5% in December and has only recovered modestly since, pointing to a clear loss of momentum in household demand.

Business surveys reinforce this picture. The NAB quarterly business survey shows conditions remain above average but have eased, while confidence has fallen to a 15-month low. Companies are still operating at reasonable levels, but they are becoming more cautious about the outlook.

Together, these data suggest the economy is not stalling — but it is clearly slowing down.

Interest rates and war are adding to the slowdown

Several forces help explain this shift.

First, interest rates are weighing on economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the cash rate, adding to borrowing costs. Monetary policy works with a lag, meaning the full effect of these rate rises has not yet been felt in consumer spending and business investment.

Economists and financial markets also expect more rate increases because of the RBA’s concerns about inflation. That would further depress demand.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock is closely watching inflation. Dan Himbrechts/AAP

Second, fuel prices have risen sharply, squeezing household budgets. Higher petrol costs both lift inflation and reduce real incomes, leaving less room for spending on other things.

Third, uncertainty has increased. Businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring and investment, as reflected in the NAB Quarterly Business Survey, where confidence has recently turned negative.

The labour market is also beginning to soften. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% in February. While still relatively low by historical standards, this suggests jobs growth has slowed.

What might yet trigger a recession

Together, the data do not currently point to an imminent recession. The level of economic activity remains solid, and the labour market, while softening, is still relatively resilient.

But they do point to growing downside risks.

A recession would likely require a combination of shocks rather than a single trigger. These could include:

• a sustained rise in fuel prices that further erodes household purchasing power

• interest rates staying higher for longer, or rising further than expected

• a sharper pullback in consumption as household savings buffers are run down

• a more pronounced deterioration in the labour market.

If several of these forces were to occur together, one or two quarters of negative growth would become more plausible.

The bottom line

The data suggest Australia is not currently in recession, but the economy is slowing and becoming more vulnerable.

Backward-looking indicators still show economic resilience, but more timely data point to weakening momentum.

The most likely outcome is a period of weak growth rather than a sharp downturn. But the margin for error is narrowing.

Whether Australia ultimately slips into recession will depend less on where the economy is today and more on what happens next — particularly in energy prices, household spending and the path of interest rates.

Source: The Conversation