Poole Group Wealth Newsletter – October 2026
October brings warmer weather, longer days, and new spring growth. It’s a fresh chance to check in, take stock and prepare for the final stretch of the year.
The continuing concerns over inflation prompted the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.6%, the highest level in 15 years. The RBA says that rising energy costs and stronger than expected economic activity also contributed to the decision.
Inflation remained above the RBA’s target range, with CPI surging to 4.0%, while the trimmed mean remained steady at 3.6%.
Consumer confidence declined 5.2% to 84.4 in September, down from 88.9 in August. This reflects concerns about cost-of-living pressures, higher interest rates and continued global uncertainty.
Australian share markets were weaker during the month with the S&P/ASX 200 retreating from the 9,000-point level as rising bond yields and expectations of higher interest rates took a toll on investor sentiment.
Oil prices remained high and volatile climbing back over US$100 a barrel, while the Australian dollar eased back towards US70 cents by month’s end.
Mastering AI: it’s all in the prompts
It’s impossible to miss the buzz around Artificial Intelligence (AI). It’s changing the way we work and live – but if you haven’t yet started dabbling in it, it might seem a little intimidating.
The language sounds technical, the tools look unfamiliar, and the speed at which everything is evolving can make it seem as though you are already behind. It is completely reasonable to feel hesitant or avoid the platforms that use AI altogether.
However, if you are not using AI, you might be in the minority. The statistics show that roughly 66 per cent of people globally use AI regularly and that figure is growing all the time, so it might be worth overcoming your reticence.i
The truth is you do not need to have an in depth understanding of how AI works in order to use it well. At its core, AI responds to conversation. If you can explain a situation, describe a goal, or ask questions, you already have the skill that matters most.
Turn overwhelm into order
One of the most immediate ways AI can improve your life is by helping you organise your thinking when everything feels scattered. When your to do list feels endless and your priorities become a blur, it becomes difficult to get started.
For example, you might write:
“Here is everything on my mind this week. Turn this into a prioritised action plan for the next three days, highlighting what is urgent and what can wait.”
Seeing your responsibilities organised clearly often creates immediate relief. What felt chaotic becomes sequenced. And when you know what to focus on first, it becomes easier to begin.
Accelerate the way you learn
Learning something new often feels slow, not because it is too difficult, but because it lacks structure. Without a clear starting point, it is easy to consume random information and still feel unsure about what truly matters.
AI can help you create that structure. You might prompt:
“Create a simple 30-day roadmap to help me become competent in [skill]. Focus on fundamentals first and tell me what I can ignore at the beginning.”
That final sentence is powerful. Knowing what not to focus on prevents distraction. Instead of wandering through endless content, you follow a deliberate path.
Make decisions with greater clarity
Decision making becomes stressful when emotion clouds judgment, especially when the outcome feels important. In those moments, laying out the situation clearly and asking for a structured breakdown of potential risks, trade-offs, and implications can create valuable distance.
You could say:
“I am deciding between Option A and Option B. Break down the pros, cons, risks, and likely long-term implications of each.”
The goal is not to hand over responsibility, but to organise your thinking. Once trade-offs are laid out clearly, the right direction often feels less overwhelming.
Strengthen your thinking before you act
Another powerful way to use AI is to invite it to challenge your plans before the real world does. By asking where your strategy might fail or what assumptions you could be overlooking, you move from hopeful thinking to resilient thinking.
Try a simple prompt such as:
“Critique this plan. Where could it fail? What assumptions am I making?”
This can reveal blind spots you may not have considered. Identifying weaknesses early allows you to refine your approach while the stakes are still manageable.
Build systems that reduce mental strain
Many people rely on motivation to carry them toward their goals, yet motivation is unpredictable. AI can help you design simple, repeatable systems that remove the need to constantly decide what to do next.
For example:
“Design a simple weekly system that ensures I consistently make progress toward [goal], with clear actions and checkpoints.”
Instead of relying on how you feel each day, you follow a rhythm. Over time, small consistent actions compound into meaningful results.
The real shift
New tools often appear complex until we realise how simply they can be used.
When approached as a thinking partner rather than a technical system, AI becomes less about innovation and more about clarity. You do not need to be highly technical. You just need curiosity and a willingness to ask thoughtful questions – and be open to where the answers take you.
i Trust, attitudes and use of artificial intelligence |KPMG
Signals from the bond markets
If the financial markets could talk, then bonds would probably be saying: “We’re not convinced the story is over yet”.
Bond yields have been rising around the world as investors reassess the outlook for inflation, economic growth and government borrowing. The moves have been significant enough to influence mortgage rates, government finances and investment portfolios.
Experienced bond investors will be well aware of what’s been happening. For everyone else, the developments offer the chance to understand why professional investors see the bond market as one of the economy’s most important barometers.
You might never have bought a bond, researched a bond ETF or checked the yield on a government bond. But there’s a good chance that bonds already play a role in your investment portfolio through your superannuation account.
That’s one reason the recent attention on bond markets matters.
Looking back
From the early 1980s to around 2020, developed economies experienced one of the longest declines in interest rates and bond yields in modern history. Falling inflation, globalisation, technological advances and relatively stable economic conditions helped drive yields steadily lower.
Following the Global Financial Crisis and then the COVID-19 pandemic, many government bond yields fell to historically low levels. In some countries, investors were even willing to accept negative yields.
That changed dramatically from 2022 onwards as inflation surged. Central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, responded by rapidly increasing interest rates.
The rapid increase in yields created short-term pain for existing bond investors but ultimately restored something that had been largely missing from bond markets for years: meaningful income.
Today, many commentators believe the era of ultra-low bond yields may be over. While inflation has eased from its peak, investors are increasingly questioning whether interest rates will return to the unusually low levels that prevailed during the 2010s.i
What’s happening in Australia?
Australian bond yields have moved higher during 2026 as investors responded to stronger than expected inflation and economic activity, and commentators are not confident that inflation will return quickly to the Reserve Bank’s target range.
Three-year government bond yields moved above 5 per cent, while 10-year bond yields approached levels not seen for more than a decade.ii
Higher yields affect far more than investment portfolios. Governments face increased borrowing costs, businesses pay more to raise capital, and lending rates throughout the economy may come under upward pressure.
The global picture
But Australia is not alone. Across the world, governments are issuing large amounts of debt to fund spending commitments, infrastructure projects and budget deficits.
Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned about the risks of geopolitical tensions, inflation uncertainty and rising levels of government debt.
Meanwhile, BlackRock notes that government borrowing is increasingly competing with private-sector demand for capital, helping push long-term yields higher in many countries. Its investment team believes that higher yields have created attractive income opportunities, but investors need to be more selective than in the past.
Understanding duration
‘Duration’ is one of the most important concepts in bond investing.
It measures how sensitive a bond’s price is to changes in interest rates. Generally speaking, the longer a bond’s duration, the more its price will move when rates change.
For example, a 10-year bond will usually experience greater price movements than a two-year bond if market interest rates rise or fall.
That helps explain why some bonds can experience significant short-term losses even when the issuer is considered financially secure. Investors often focus on credit risk, but interest-rate risk can be just as important.
The sharp rise in global yields over recent years has highlighted the importance of duration. Longer-dated bonds, which benefited hugely when rates were falling, were among the hardest hit when yields moved higher.
The bottom line
After years of being overlooked, bonds are once again demanding investors’ attention with higher yields providing more income than for much of the last decade.
At the same time, the rising yields are a reminder that bonds are not risk-free and that issues such as duration, inflation and government borrowing matter.
Although forecasts differ on the precise direction of interest rates, there appears to be broad agreement that investors should prepare for a more complex bond market.
i Fixed Income & Bond Market Outlook | BlackRock
ii Rising bond yields are punching a $10 billion hole in Australian government budgets | AFR
RBA Announcement – September 2026
At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target to 4.60 per cent.
Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising.
The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts.
Please click here to view the Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision.
Please get in touch if you would like to discuss recent rates and how they may affect you, or if you would like to review your finance options.
Market movements and review video – October 2026
Stay up to date with what’s happened in the Australian economy and markets over the past month.
We are all about keeping you informed and empowered and this month’s economic and market video provides a quick overview of the shifting Australian economic landscape and what’s driving market movements.
The big news was the RBA lifting the official cash rate to 4.60%, introducing new headwinds for local markets and households.
Markets navigated a challenging month characterised by persistent geopolitical stress in the Middle East, rising bond yields, and stubborn inflation fears.
Meanwhile a softer Australian Dollar and a retreat in consumer sentiment reflected growing caution.
As always, feel free to reach out if you have any questions or want to chat about your strategy.
Click the video below to view our update.
Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.
